Bachmann Overdrive Leaves Sarah in Dust UPDATE:// UK bookies say Bachmann twice as likely as Palin to win 2012

As The New York Times reports, Michele Bachmann electrified a July Fourth crowd in Clear Lake, Iowa yesterday.

The excitement surrounding Mrs. Bachmann rivaled the attention paid to most candidates in recent years, including in 2007 when Hillary Rodham Clinton arrived with her husband in tow…One week after Mrs. Bachmann declared her candidacy in Iowa, where she lived until age 12, her campaign has swept through New Hampshire and South Carolina, drawing bigger crowds than any of her Republican rivals.

A year ago, I’m sure Sarah Palin supporters would have envisioned the exact same scene, but with Sarah as the center of attention.

It was not to be. All Sarah could muster for the holiday was a typically stale, banal tweet:

“Let Freedom Ring! Happy Independence Day… thank God for America, thank God for our troops.

Sarah may still be asking herself, “To be or not to be?” but the answer matters less with each passing day.

The GOP circus train has moved on, leaving Sarah stranded at the Wasilla depot with nobody even caring any more.

 

 

UPDATE: The UK betting agency, William Hill, which is seeking approval to take presidential bets in Las Vegas next year, has posted their current odds on the 2012 race.  Why is the chart below a valuable guide to what’s actually likely to happen, as opposed to what partisans hope for?  Because William Hill couldn’t care less who wins.  As long as they adjust their odds to stay ahead of the curve, they make their profit regardless of the outcome.  Thus, their take on 2012 is something hard to find in U.S. media and on blogs:  expert and dispassionate.

William Hill odds don’t differ significantly from those recently offered by Ladbrokes, which I posted here, but they are more current.

Take a look:

Next US President


4/9
Barack Obama
6/1
Mitt Romney
8/1
Tim Pawlenty
12/1
Rick Perry
14/1
Michele Bachmann
18/1
Jon Huntsman
28/1
Sarah Palin
40/1
Ron Paul
40/1
Marco Rubio
50/1
Hilary Clinton
50/1
Joe Biden
50/1
Rudy Giuliani
50/1
Rick Santorum
50/1
Herman Cain
66/1
Newt Gingrich
100/1
Jeb Bush
500/1
Randall Terry

 

Bachmann at 14/1 offers only half the reward that a bet on Sarah at 28/1 would return–the surest sign yet that God has grown tired of holding open the door.

Of course, Obama at 4/9 suggests that a bet on any Republican would be putting “trickle-up” economics into action (i.e. your money will trickle up into William Hill’s already bloated coffers.)

p.s.  William Hill offering 9/4 on Brazil to win the Copa America (South American championship) currently being played in Argentina.  Having watched all first-round matches (Univision/Telefutura have great HD broadcasts) I’m tempted…also tempted by the 10/1 currently offered on Brazil’s Pato to wind up as individual high scorer.

But not at all tempted by 28-1 on Sarah What’s-her-name.

FULL DISCLOSURE:  In 1999, The Miracle of Castel di Sangro was shortlisted for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year award.  In the end, the award went to a bedridden “septuagenarian knight” for his social history of English cricket. I congratulated Sir Derek by telephone soon after the presentation. He was utterly charming and I’m glad his final days were brightened by the award.

Anyway, how’s a Yank named Joe gonna beat out a septuagenarian knight for a London book prize?

The William Hill people made the awards ceremony a splendid event, and as second prize I received a £750 credit to the new wagering account they established for me. No need to tell you how long it took me to run through that!

 

42 Responses to “Bachmann Overdrive Leaves Sarah in Dust UPDATE:// UK bookies say Bachmann twice as likely as Palin to win 2012”

  • brbr2424:

    Bristol will be mad. Look at Michelle in a top and a skirt. Bristol’s mom wears a top and a bottom. Copycat!

  • JR:

    Just wait until M. Bachmann starts using that Thumb Between the First Two Fingers Fist Pump Thingy™ when reciting her talking points. The shit will really hit the fan.

  • Chris:

    LOL, Bachmann had a photo op showing her looking at a guys tattoo, how dare she! What next a chopper ride? And she’s “dancing” for the crowds, now that’s something Sarah never did! She’s getting all the media attention Sarah used to get for saying crazy shit. Poor Sarah!

  • jcinco:

    She has sort of short flabby arms like sarah, bristle will accuse her of copying her mom…I can’t wait to see Michele dress up like Stevie Nicks, that will really piss off the palins.

  • curiouser:

    I had hoped Sarah would suffer a fall from the trapeze so spectacular and disastrous that it would shut down the circus for good.

  • Flying Pig Ranch:

    We can do so much better than this. The circus train is coming to a station near you. Don’t be distracted by the clowns and the painted ladies in gravity defying boobaciousness, spinning and spinning. Grinning and waving. Hang on to your wallets when they reach out to shake your hands.

  • themom:

    So then MB will do a “follow the non-leader” right off that copy-cat trapeze. That would be a real fall from grace……………miserable copycat that she would be/is.

  • Willow:

    Oh my Bristol,…. Michelle Bachmann has a bus too just like mom!

  • Tôt ou Tard:

    I’ll give Michelle this: she does know how to dress for South Carolina weather and still look professional.

  • Ripper Cushons:

    This is really scary: in a few states (including Mississippi & Alabama), women who’ve miscarried or had stillbirths are being charged with murder :

    http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/07/01/256823/pregnant-women-criminal-charges/

    If Bachmann ever gains power and passes a bunch of “behavior laws,” the prisons will be even more over-populated.

  • Psalm023:

    Wonder what’s keeping SP so quiet lately? Usually, quiet from SP is like the calm before a storm. Am half expecting her to make some grand announcement, which has nothing to do with politics. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out she’s been hired by Donald Trump to manage some grand hunting/sporting casino/hotel chain of resorts – maybe somewhere in the hinterlands, with Todd and Mr. Heath as official managers of the sport guiding department. LOL

  • carollt:

    The Queen is not going to like your post (she already does not like the New York Times). How’s that ‘social media’ workin’ for ya Sarah?

    Social media has its place in campaigns of the 21st century, but there is no substitute for old fashioned campaigning. A serious candidate has to campaign in person. A serious candidate has to speak to the press. A serious candidate needs to speak in sentences that the average person can understand. A serious candidate is out and about on July 4th when the primaries are seven months away. A serous candidate has actual policies, not just talking points about so-called conservative values. A serious candidate is, well, serious. Campaigning is hard work and I am not sure Sarah is up to doing any hard work. From what I have seen of her ‘career’, she has never worked very hard and probably never will. Indeed, Sarah makes George Bush look like a workaholic, which of course, he wasn’t.

    I heard Sarah’s daughter state that Michele Bachmann is stealing her mother’s style. Since I am quite convinced that Sarah instructed her daughter to say that, I have something to say about the styles of these two women. Republican women have dressed in red blazers for as long as I have been alive and I am 55 years old. I don’t think I ever saw Nancy Reagan in anything but red. And Michele is certainly not copying Sarah’s bad habit of sticking her tougue out all the time like a dog. I do not know the names of any of Michele’s five children because she does not use them for campaign props. I have not noticed Michele’s bust size changing which would indicate that Michele does not use sex to make a sale like Sarah tries to (Sarah, you are getting a bit old for that routine – just saying…). Michele does not play the victim when the press does not go her way. She didn’t blame the media when she said Lexington was in New Hampshire. I have not seen Michele wearing a cross so big you could see it from space and I don’t believe I have ever seen Michele wear a Star of David. She also does not wear a tacky rhinestone cross right above low cut jeans. Aside from the red blazer that all Republican women seem to wear, I find the styles of these two women very different. Michele, in keeping with her Christian roots, dresses modestly. Sarah Palin, the charlatan, dresses more like a lady in red, if you will.

    But the parade is passing Sarah by. There is not a lot of time left to get in the race. The primaries are seven short months away and folks in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will not vote for a candidate that only plays on Facebook.

    But Sarah has to run to stay relevant. Already, the money machine is drying up and the media is not writing about her like they used to. She is very close to being yesterday’s newspaper, as they used to say.

    Perhaps she will announce on July 15th, the day her propaganda film will be ‘released’. I read that Michele Bachmann will be announcing her 2nd quarter fund raising totals on July 15. If Michele’s fundraising is north of ten million, she just might win the 24 hour news that day.

  • jcinco:

    Bachmann’s style can be described as Talbot’s, sarah’s is more like Claire’s in the mall for jewelry and Hot Topic for her apparel.

  • VictoriaJ:

    And remember, if they leave the circus and head towards the water show, the first five rows will get soaked.

  • FrostyAK:

    Why do I sense that people are glad and giving a sigh of relief that Bachmann has taken over the $P circus? The new clown may be a slight bit smarter than the old one, but she is just as bat-shit crazy as the old one. NOT something I want to see anywhere near the “nukular codes”.

  • FEDUP!!!:

    I totally agree with you, Frosty! I am reading the comments here, and am flabbergasted that people do not comment on the fact that this DITZ actually has the GUMPTION to want to run for POTUS. What has our country come to? Have we actually sunk so low, that we accept a nincompoop and hope/accept that she is running and potentially winning the nomination?
    Our country has sunk so low, we are actually right there with the Taliban – except OUR Taliban is a CHRISTIAN (in name only) Taliban.

    I hope fervently that she does not win, and that reason will prevail – but I have no real hopes.

    People should watch the movie ‘Selling God’. It is quite an eye-opener.

  • carollt:

    We can have a bit of fun comparing Sarah and Michele. I doubt either one will get the nomination. If I did, my comment would have taken a much different tone.

  • Flying Pig Ranch:

    We can’t stop “the DITZ” from running but we do have the power to not let her win. But perhaps not since we the people are so easily distracted by “bread and circuses. It seems easier to take things on faith than the facts for too many people.

  • jcinco:

    We have some very conservative friends and they have always loved sarah. Last night we went to their house for a 4th barbeque and there were at least 8 other very conservative guests. We all know each others political beliefs and rarely talk politics as it’s a group that originally got together because of our kids going to school together and we’re always civil and respectful to one another. The group was all getting a big “yuk” about bachmann’s aspirations to be president. It’s very strange as it’s obvious she is marginally smarter than palin, can actually speak English in an articulate manner and is willing to go on Sunday morning shows and yet folks find her to be the one that’s a big joke instead of palin. If last night was any indication of the conservatives’ feelings regarding bachmann I’d say she’s not the one to be worried about. Besides google her husband, the general public perceives him as a hypocritical, closeted ted haggard type.

  • Rocky in Texas said...:

    I just hope that “Her God” is telling her…

    “The door has closed”

  • miller:

    I could not agree more………news about Sarah Palin is non-existent unless she is being compared to Bachmann.
    I do have a question and hope that someone can answered it. Sarah has a PAC which she can use to suppport other candidates (yeah,right) but also to finance her travels etc. What happens to the PAC if she decides not to run? Does it become her money?

  • FrostyAK:

    I call the Xtian Taliban the talibangelicals. They are much more prevalent than we would like to believe. So many I’ve talked to think Theocracy would be better then what we have now. Scary.

  • But look at the bright side, she will not win, and she is not running for reelection for Congress, so we will be rid of her!

  • Sally:

    That’s why we have to vote the GOP OUT everywhere…this is not only happening in the south. Rights are being taken away everywhere there is a GOP majority.

  • Liz I.:

    If Palin doesn’t run, her PAC can just continue its business as usual. (A strong motivation NOT to run.) If she does run she has to form a candidate committee, with new rules and new funds. If her PAC is terminated because she decides to run, the remaining funds can be used for any legal purpose or refunded to donors or given to charity. The PAC’s contributions to candidates or other PACs are limited to $5000 per candidate/PAC (or$15,000 to a party).

  • John Thomas:

    While enjoying some excellent grilled eats with friends and family this holiday someone suggested a term similar to the term we saw in the last election (CINO – conservative in name only) except this term has christian for the C as in Christian In Name Only. That seems to describe sister scarah pretty well.

  • trixy:

    carollt – That was a kick @ss comment – loved it!

  • serena1313:

    I realize the majority here are rightfully & correctly focused on Sarah Palin & perhaps to a lesser degree Michele Bachmann, however, some of that attention ought to also be directed toward Rick Perry as he is likely to make his announcement soon.

    Perry can be described as a male Sarah Palin on steroids: equally, if not more, dangerous, ignorant and lies constantly.

    Very influential, very wealthy powerbrokers in the real estate industry, oil and gas (including the Koch brothers) industry, the corporate sector, and yes even the extreme far-right conservative religious groups will gladly hand him enormous amounts of cash confident in that he will do their bidding.

    The so-called ‘”prominent” figures on the Christian Right: (see link below)

    Tony Perkins, associate of Jack Abramoff

    John Hagee, an extremist far-right preacher in Texas

    And Joe Barton another Texan –(if I re_member correctly) a former Bush administration official

    decided they prefer Rick Perry over Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin.

    I do not know how much influence those endorsements carry outside of their immediate religious circles, however, Hagee’s endorsement is like the kiss of death. McCain, for example, had gladly accepted Hagee’s endorsement, but when it became public McCain said thanks, but no thanks and backed off — albeit somewhat reluctantly. Perry will probably do his best to keep it underwraps. But unlike McCain, I suspect, Perry will have some sort of feeble excuse or a statement worded in a way that is not a lie, but certainly not true either. Perkins, on the other hand, is not as toxic despite his association with Abramoff.

    Perry’s fanatical religious fervor really gets the far-right conservative Christians excited. Don’t let him fool you, it’s all an act. He is a snake-oil salesman.

    The only difference between Perry and Palin is he is a polished politician, whereas she isn’t.

    Could Perry pull it off in a general election? He has a good story to tell, but that is all it is: a story, a fable, a myth, a fiction. The media, however, will swallow it hook-line-and-sinker. But more importantly will the voters?

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/07/05/christian_leaders_agreed_to_back_perry.html

    “Time reports that a group of prominent figures on the Christian Right held a conference call in early June ‘to discuss their dissatisfaction with the current GOP presidential field, and agreed that Rick Perry would be their preferred candidate if he entered the race. Among those on the call were Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council; David Barton, the Texas activist and go-to historian for the Christian Right; and John Hagee, the controversial San Antonio pastor whose endorsement John McCain rejected in 2008.’”

    “Religious conservatives have often played a substantial role in choosing past Republican nominees, but leaders on the Christian Right have been conspicuously quiet so far in this campaign season. Privately, however, they are enthusiastic about Perry and are encouraging the Texas governor to throw his ten-gallon hat in the ring.”

  • Susan125:

    serena, good points, and thanks for bringing all this into the discussion. As a former Texan (and current Bachmann constituent — sigh), Perry is a nightmare. The only “positive” about Perry is that in a general election (and maybe even in many primaries), too many Americans still have way too much heartburn from the last idjit Texas governor to consider another one. Enough to offset the bots / 22% die-hards. (And yes, I know there are big diffs b/t W & Good-Hair, and they’re in many ways political frenemies.)

    Perry’s like Jeb — he might actually have a chance, if only he wasn’t a big walking reminder of the very recent, very f’d up trainWreck that we’re still dealing with.

    But still someone to keep our eye on.

  • Nefer:

    Please pardon my ignorance, Joe, but could you (or anyone else reading this) explain what the betting numbers mean? I gather a higher number on the left is bad for the candidate, but not much else. Does 28/1 (Palin) mean that if you put $1 on Palin to win, and she actually did, you would win $28? If she lost, would you owe a bookie $28? Thank you.

  • esbee:

    That Bristol thinks that Michele copied Sarah’s style is proof that no periodicals dealing with business or politics over cross the Palin threshold. Bristol does not seem to have been exposed to images of professional women. The way both Sarah and Bristol Palin dress is more reminiscent of gossip magazines; their frame of reference is definitely the ‘celebrity’ look.

  • B:

    Pay $1, get paid $28 if she won, bookie keeps your $1 if she loses and uses it to pay betters who picked winner..

  • B:

    This is a great line, Joe: “The surest sign yet that God has grown tired of holding open the door.” (Grown tired, or thought better of it.)

  • B:

    Aside from Perry’s religious snake oil, what would it say about Republicans if they nominate a guy to run the country who suggested his state secede from that country? Have they no shame? (Apparently not. They picked a VP candidate who was unvetted, dangerous, mentally unstable, and faked a pregnancy for political gain.)

  • omomma:

    I think you nailed it here.

  • anAlaskanAlsoII:

    Oral Roberts / Regent / Liberty Law – any of em, all of em (and where Bachmann got her juris doctorate) should bring to light once again the incredulous influence and power unaccredited Christian institutions are given by conservative government.

    http://www.boston.com/news/education/higher/articles/2007/04/08/scandal_puts_spotlight_on_christian_law_school/

    While this brought me back to George W. Bush’s nomination of his White House Counsel, Harriet Miers to SCOTUS, it sheds light on a curious standard the Right had on qualified females over Harry Reid and George W. himself – until hot for Jesus babes like Sarah Palin, Christine O’Donnell and Michele Bachmann came on the scene.

    Look back on the extraordinary brouhaha from within W’s own party on the fact that Harriet was unqualified? She met the technical requirements, in that she was a lawyer – but never truly practiced law nor served as a judge.

    The GOP piled on her, offended that she had the nerve to put her hat in.

    Fast forward five years, only FIVE years, and they are rallying behind a woman who was technically eligible (able-bodied, of age and born in America) but was woefully unqualified to serve as a heart-beat away from the Presidency?

    Now this loon, Bachmann, who knows that she knows that she knows that she’s hot for Jesus, wants us to figure she’s safer from scrutiny on a credentials stand-point when she’s a JesusU grad and no better a constitutional or tax law expert than Christine O’Donnell.

    Sigh.

    None of these women, including S.C. Governor Niki Haley, deserves or belong in public roles – Christian, private sector all they want, but damn this Pink Elephant revolution – there is nothing refreshing or exciting about the staid, tired old White Male Republican Guard brand of non-secular rule that has nothing to do with good faith.

  • mea:

    i find her “quiet demise” much more satisfying.
    where is she? who cares?

  • MicMac:

    Perry is scary. Extreme as Palin or Bachmann. “Worse” from our POV, the man is far more than “polished politician” – his experience and credentials are enormous, broadbased. Look up his profile on Wikipedia and you will see that his credentials would blow almost any other current candidate (other than our sitting President!) out of the water.

  • Scout:

    Excellent analysis, carollt, I think you are spot on.

  • mary b:

    That was a great comment!!
    But I disagree, only slightly.
    Batshit Bachmann uses the “sexist card” when ever it is convenient for her. Nothing close to $arah’s way of doing it though.
    She also uses “Victim” and claims she is a victim of religious persecution, just like all the crazy in the religious right wing. But she does it less often than $arah.
    Other than those two points, I think you’ve nailed it!!

  • mary b:

    Batshit Bachmann may even be more dangerous as President than $arah!
    $arah can be bought off easily. Batshit really believes the Theocratic, un-Americanism bullshit she is always spouting off.
    Her spouse is also a shadow Congressman like Todd was the shadow Governor.
    But the Bachmann’s are a bit more educated and they do know how D.C. works, unlike the Grifting Duo from Wasilly.
    I don’t want ANY of the GOP candidates near the White House, Senate or even the House.
    More reason for us to get to work and GOTV!!!

    OrganizingforAmerica.org

  • Bretta:

    And she has five kids!
    And a miscarriage!
    And a gay husband also too!
    Will it never end?

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